In the last decade sobering assessments of the impacts that climate change is having and will have on the global economy and health were released. Chief among them was The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, the most comprehensive review ever carried out on the subject.

Contents

The Stern Review: Summary of Conclusions (There is Still Time; Serious Impacts on Growth & Development; Strong, Deliberate Policy Action Required)

Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Natural Resources Canada

Human Health in a Changing Climate. Health Canada

The Stern Review. Summary of Conclusions

Published on October 30, 2006 the Stern Review was led by Lord Nicholas Stern, then Head of the Government Economic Service and former World Bank Chief Economist. The Review set out to provide a report to the UK Prime Minister and Chancellor, assessing the nature of the economic challenges of climate change and how they can be met, both in the UK and globally.

The following is taken from The Stern Review:The Economics of Climate Change - Summary and Conclusions.

There is Still Time

• The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change is a serious global threat, and it demands an urgent global response. Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf

• Using the results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action – reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

• The investment that takes place in the next 10-20 years will have a profound effect on the climate in the second half of this century and in the next. Our actions now and over the coming decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes. So prompt and strong action is clearly warranted. Because climate change is a global problem, the response to it must be international. It must be based on a shared vision of long-term goals and agreement on frameworks that will accelerate action over the next decade, and it must build on mutually reinforcing approaches at national, regional and international level. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

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Serious Impacts on Growth & Development

• All countries will be affected. The most vulnerable – the poorest countries and populations – will suffer earliest and most, even though they have contributed least to the causes of climate change. The costs of extreme weather, including floods, droughts and storms, are already rising, including for rich countries. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

• Adaptation to climate change – that is, taking steps to build resilience and minimize costs – is essential. It is no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the next two to three decades, but it is still possible to protect our societies and economies from its impacts to some extent – for example, by providing better information, improved planning and more climate-resilient crops and infrastructure. Adaptation will cost tens of billions of dollars a year in developing countries alone, and will put still further pressure on already scarce resources. Adaptation efforts, particularly in developing countries, should be accelerated. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

• Action on climate change will also create significant business opportunities, as new markets are created in low-carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services. These markets could grow to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars each year, and employment in these sectors will expand accordingly. The world does not need to choose between averting climate change and promoting growth and development. Changes in energy technologies and in the structure of economies have created opportunities to decouple growth from greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, ignoring climate change will eventually damage economic growth. Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy for the longer term, and it can be done in a way that does not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

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Deliberate Policy Action Required

• Emissions can be cut through increased energy efficiency, changes in demand, and through adoption of clean power, heat and transport technologies. Cuts in non-energy emissions, such as those resulting from deforestation and from agricultural and industrial processes, are also essential. With strong, deliberate policy choices, it is possible to reduce emissions in both developed and developing economies on the scale necessary for stabilization in the required range while continuing to grow. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

• Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen, and it interacts with other market imperfections. Three elements of policy are required for an effective global response. The first is the pricing of carbon, implemented through tax, trading or regulation. The second is policy to support innovation and the deployment of low-carbon technologies. And the third is action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and to inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/CLOSED_SHORT_executive_summary.pdf  

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Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate

From Impacts to Adaption: Canada in a Changing Climate (Synthesis). Natural Resources Canada

• The economic costs resulting from extreme weather events in Canada in the past decade (since 1996) have been greater than for all previous years combined. Costs reaching hundreds of millions and even billions of dollars are associated with flooding, wind, hail and ice storms, hurricanes, tornados and wild fires in all regions of southern Canada, arising from property damage and disruptions in the production and flow of goods and services. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/synth_e.pdf

• Prolonged periods of unusual weather, such as drought, can also result in high economic costs. Six of the ten most costly disasters in Canadian history have been droughts. The national-scale drought of 2001–2002 resulted in Canada’s gross domestic product being reduced by about $5.8 billion, as well as more than 41,000 job losses. While it is not possible to attribute individual weather events to changing climate, such costs illustrate that Canadian communities and infrastructure are vulnerable to such events. This vulnerability is likely to increase, since climate models project increases in the frequency and magnitude of many types of extreme weather. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/synth_e.pdf

• Extreme weather events affect the health and wellbeing of Canadians, as they frequently involve job losses, loss of assets, displacements, physical injuries and illnesses, psychological disorders, and loss of lives. The 1998 ice storm resulted in 945 injuries, while wildfires in British Columbia and Alberta resulted in an estimated 45,000 displacements in 2003, both of which are records for natural disasters in Canada. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/synth_e.pdf

• Heavy rainfall following a period of drought was a contributing factor to the E. coli outbreak in Walkerton, Ontario in 2000, which resulted in seven deaths and thousands of people becoming ill. http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/pdf/synth_e.pdf

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Human Health in a Changing Climate

• The Canadian Disaster Database provides an important source of information concerning the occurrence and impacts of large-scale events in Canada. During the past century, fatalities from natural hazards and extreme weather events in Canada have decreased largely due to improvements in infrastructure, knowledge of existing risks, and protection measures that have been implemented. However, the number of people affected and the associated economic costs from such events have shown a dramatic increase in recent decades. The total number of Canadians affected by natural disasters increased from 79,066 between 1984 and 1993, to 578,238 between 1994 and 2003. There is also some evidence of increases in communicable diseases and longer-term psychological and social effects in the aftermath of extreme weather events. http://www.nbhub.org/hubfiles/pdf/HealthinChangingClimate_Synthesis_english_low.pdf

• The number of flood disasters along Canadian rivers seems to be on the rise, with 70% of floods over the past century occurring after 1959. http://www.nbhub.org/hubfiles/pdf/HealthinChangingClimate_Synthesis_english_low.pdf

• During 2003, the driest spring and summer since 1929 occurred in the southern interior region of British Columbia. That summer, over 266,000 hectares of forests were swept by wild fires. They cost the lives of three pilots engaged in fire fighting, forced the evacuation of 45,000 people, destroyed at least 350 homes and businesses, damaged infrastructure and required the deployment of 6,000 firefighters. Some of the worst effects on community health and well-being were caused by the Okanagan Mountain Park fire near Kelowna. Increased levels of particulate matter air pollution resulting from the fires led to an increase in respiratory complaints from Kelowna residents, as well as strain on health services. http://www.nbhub.org/hubfiles/pdf/HealthinChangingClimate_Synthesis_english_low.pdf

• More floods are projected to occur in Canadian communities due to an increase in intense precipitation events, while the risk of drought and forest fires is also projected to increase. Many coastal areas will face greater risks from extreme weather events, such as stronger storm surges, and a decrease in the winter sea ice which protects coastlines. Heat waves are very likely to increase in frequency and severity, with the risk of heat related deaths being the greatest in cities due to higher population densities and the urban heat island effect. http://www.nbhub.org/hubfiles/pdf/HealthinChangingClimate_Synthesis_english_low.pdf