I'm Hitting On Almost 70% Of My Picks This Season
My Overall Record: 159-81
My Upset Specials: 8-8
My Locks Of The Week: 12-4
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers – Lions four and a half point favorites
My Pick – Lions 31, Packers 20-A-Rod doesn’t play/Packers 27, Lions 24/A-Rod does play
Key Match-up – Lions Players vs. Packers HC Mike McCarthy – Jim Schwartz is all set to play his starters as usual. McCarthy isn't so sure. This key match-up is pretty cut and dry. If and how long will McCarthy play his starters (especially QB Aaron Rodgers).
Key Injury – Lions CB Chris Houston – Houston has been the one corner the Lions have been able to trust this season. He also has a career high five picks and returned two of them for touchdowns. Houston is questionable for this game with a hand injury. If he plays he'll probably be hampered by the injury.
Pre-game Analysis – The Lions haven't won at Lambeau Field in more than two decades. And unlike the Packers they still have something to play for, as far as the Playoff picture is concerned. The Lions will be highly motivated to win this game. If A-Rod sits this one out, I like the Lions by two scores. If not then I like the Packers in a close one.
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans – Titans one and a half point favorites
My Pick – Texans 20, Titans 18
Key Match-up – Titans FS Michael Griffin vs. Texans QB T.J. Yates – Game tape will eventually catch up with young quarterbacks. And it has with Yates. He rarely throws the ball down the field and defenses are catching on. Yates will need to keep former Pro Bowler Michael Griffin honest, by taking some shots down field.
Key Injury – Titans DE/DT Jason Jones – Jones is doubtful for this game with a ankle injury. He's a versatile player for the Titans. He plays on the outside and inside of the defensive lines, using a nice mix of power and speed. The Titans will miss that against the best offensive line in the NFL.
Pre-Game Analysis – At the moment, the Titans have the better passing game and the Texans have the better running game. The Texans also have a superior defense and most importantly their football team is better than the Titans. Even with T.J. Yates's problems I have to take the home team here.
My Upset Special:
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Jaguars three and a half point favorites
My Pick – Colts 14, Jaguars 9
Key Match-up – Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. Jaguars LT Eugene Monroe – Freeney's partner in crime, Robert Mathis, should have his way with right tackle Guy Whimper. If Freeney can win his one-on-ones with Monroe it will be an even longer day for quarterback Blaine Gabbert.
Key Injury – Jaguars LT Eugene Monroe – Monroe is questionable for this game with an ankle injury. The last thing the Jaguars need is for Blaine Gabbert to feel more gun shy.
Pre-game Analysis – The Colts will lock up the #1 pick with a loss in Jacksonville. But this team has too much pride and talent, to think like that. I trust Colts quarterback Dan Orlovsky and the Colts more than I do Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins – Dolphins three point favorites
My Pick – Jets 16, Dolphins 6
Key Match-up – Jets C Nick Mangold vs. Dolphins NT Paul Soliai – If the Jets start to get a rhythm in their running game it could be a long day for the home team. Soliai will have to do his best, to hold the point, against the NFL's #1.
Key Injury – Dolphins RB Reggie Bush – Bush was on a tear in the second half of the season. He's out for the season finale with a leg injury. Bush's back-up Daniel Thomas hasn't only totaled 80 or more rushing yards since Week 3. This will put a lot more pressure on the quarterback Matt Moore, who's completing less than 60 percent of his passes this season.
Pre-game Analysis – Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez is in a serious funk. But the Jets defense is still kicking. If the Jets can run the ball effectively and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer sticks with it, the Jets should win by two scores.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings – Vikings one and a half point favorites
My Pick – Vikings 23, Bears 19
Key Match-up – Bears RB Kahlil Bell vs. Vikings DT Kevin Williams & LBs Chad Greenway & E.J. Henderson
Key Injury – Bears MLB Brian Urlacher – Knee injury/questionable
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – Patriots 10 and a half point favorites
My Pick – Patriots 38, Bills 24
Key Match-up – Bills Safeties vs. Patriots QB Tom Brady
Key Injury – Bills K Dave Rayner – Left groin injury out for the season/Brandon Coutu will start in his place (Coutu never played in an NFL game)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints – Saints seven and a half point favorites
My Pick – Saints 27, Panthers 24
Key Match-up – Panthers LBs James Anderson & Jordan Senn vs. Saints OGs Carl Nicks & Jahri Evans
Key Injury – Panthers DE Charles Johnson – Back injury/doubtful
Washington @ Philadelphia – Philly eight point favorites
My Pick – Philadelphia 41, Washington 24
Key Match-up – Washington QB Rex Grossman vs. Eagles SS Kurt Coleman
Key Injury – Eagles CB Asante Samuel – Hamstring injury/Out
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams – 49ers 11 point favorites
My Pick – 49ers 23, Rams 6
Key Match-up – Niners QB Alex Smith vs. Rams HC/DC Steve Spagnuolo
Key Injury – Niners TE Delanie Walker – Jaw injury/Out
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals – Cardinals two point favorites
My Pick – Cardinals 24, Seahawks 21
Key Match-up – Seahawks Pass Rush vs. Cardinals Pass Protection
Key Injury – Cardinals RT Brandon Keith – Ankle injury/Out for the season
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons – Falcons 10 point favorites
My Pick – Falcons 37, Buccaneers 24
Key Match-up – Buccaneers Running Game vs. Falcons Run Defense
Key Injury – Buccaneers RT Jeremy Trueblood - Concussion/Out
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals – Ravens two point favorites
My Pick – Bengals 23, Ravens 17
Key Match-up – Ravens Back Seven vs. Bengals QB Andy Dalton off of Play-action – The Bengals won't have that much success running the football but they might off of play-action. If the rookie quarterback can hit the open man consistently, after selling a run play, the Bengals will be in business.
Key Injury – Ravens RG Marshal Yanda – Yanda is doubtful for this game with a chest injury. Yanda has become the best run blocker the Ravens have on their offensive line. Andre Gurode is a decent substitute but he's certainly not the talent Yanda is.
Pre-game Analysis – The Ravens have only one win on the road, against a team with a winning record this season. That was against their most hated rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals will be much more hungry in this game and the Steelers could end up stealing this division after all.
My Lock Of The Week:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos – Broncos three point favorites
My Pick – Broncos 20, Chiefs 17
Key Match-up – Chiefs ILB Derrick Johnson vs. Broncos QB Tim Tebow – Let's say nobody knew who Tim Tebow was and you put his college (Heisman & National Champ) & NFL (1st round pick & 10-5 as a starter) credentials on a big board. It would sound a little ridiculous to say it would be a good thing for that quarterback's opponent for him to throw more than eight times in a game. The last these teams met Tebow threw only eight passes and the Broncos won by 10. Johnson and company need to keep Tebow from running wild and have him throw as many passes as possible.
Key Injury – Chiefs SS Jon McGraw – McGraw is doubtful for this game with an ankle injury. He's done an OK job filling in for Eric Berry this season (who was put on IR after Week 1). Sabby Piscitelli will take his place and has been anything but shaky in his starts in the past.
Pre-game Analysis – What can I say? I believe in Tebow. I also believe in Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, D.J. Williams on the other side of the ball; along with the fact Denver's mediocre offense is a little more potent than the Chiefs mediocre offense.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns – Steelers six and a half point favorites
My Pick – Steelers 17, Browns 9
Key Match-up – Steelers QBs Ben Roethlisberger & Charlie Batch vs. Browns Defense
Key Injury – Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger – Ankle injury/Probable
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders – Raiders two and a half point favorites
My Pick – Raiders 27, Chargers 21
Key Match-up – Chargers LT Jared Gaither vs. Raiders OLB Kamerion Wimbley – The last time these two teams met Wimbley picked up a career high four sacks. The Chargers didn't have Gaither in that meeting. They do in this one. It should be an interesting match-up to say the least.
Key Injury – Chargers RB Ryan Matthews – Matthews is questionable with a calf injury for this game. Matthews gives is the only back that can give this team a burst getting to the sideline and going up the field. The Chargers will need everything Matthews has got if they want to get the win in this one.
Pre-game Analysis – I don't trust either of these teams but my distrust in the Chargers goes deeper than with the Raiders. Plus the Raiders are at home and feeling good about themselves at the moment, unlike the Chargers. I'm taking Oakland for the season sweep.
My Game Of The Week:
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants – Giants three point favorites
My Pick – Giants 27, Cowboys 20
Key Match-up – Cowboys OTs Doug Free & Tyron Smith vs. Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul - Free and Smith are coming off their worst combined game of the season. JPP is still on fire. The Cowboys tackles will need to conjure up some momentum if they want to slow down the NFL's hottest pass rusher and help send the Cowboys to the Playoffs, at the same time.
Key Injury – Cowboys LG Montrae Holland – Ever since Holland got back into shape and re-joined the team 10 games ago the Cowboys running game has been for the better. Holland tore his biceps muscle against the Eagles last week and is now on injured reserve. The Cowboys were already without rookie sensation DeMarco Murray at running back. Now their running game is skating on very thin ice at the worst possible time.
Pre-game Analysis – The talent and the information in this football game, tells me to take the New York Football Giants. That is exactly what I'm going to do.
My Bold Prediction for the week: A receiver will score a rushing touchdown today.
Team that needs a win the most: Ravens.
Player that needs to step it up: Broncos LT Ryan Clady
Week 16 Record - 11-5
Week 15 Record - 7-9
Week 14 Record - 11-5
Week 13 Record - 9-7
Week 12 Record - 13-3 (Best showing of the season!)
Week 11 Record - 11-3
My Week 10 Record – 9-7 (It's been seven weeks since I've hit ten wins. It's been too long!)
My Week 9 Record - 8-6
My Week 8 Record - 9-4
My Week 7 Record – 9-4
My Week 6 Record - 9-4
My Week 5 Record - 9-4
My Week 4 Record - 8-8
My Week 3 Record - 12-4
My Week 2 Record - 12-4
My Week 1 Record - 12-4