Bruce Porteous of New Zealand articulates an apocalyptic scenario here containing themes which are on the minds of many.  However, his case contains a number of flawed premises.  I would like to address the most egregious here:

1.  Porteous assumes that democratic forms of government are incompetent to manage the massive economic and social change required to shift from the current industrial growth culture based on the reductionist paradigm to what Thomas Berry refers to as the "ecozoic" paradigm, which is based on sustainable energy and food production practices and recycling of materials.  Karl Marx predicted the fall of western capitalism and democracy in Das Kapital because he saw the US and other western governments increasingly suffering from regulatory capture by the robber barons of the age, did not believe that the US or other elected governments could alter the economic system which was concentrating more and more of the national wealth into the hands of the capitalistic elite.  He did not believe that Republican President Theodore Roosevelt and his "trust busters" could come into power and redistribute wealth; he did not believe that Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal could do it again in response to the Great Depression - but that is what happened.  In the world currently, I watch with great interest industry after industry (including all major US automakers, several major oil and electric utility corporations) joining the Global Climate Partnership with environmental groups and lobbying Congress for a carbon tax, cap-and-trade emissions reduction system.  I watch with interest the likelihood that one of Congress's most vigorous advocates of campaign finance reform and opponents of pork-barrel spending, John McCain, seems to be on track to be the Republican presidential nominee.  If people realize that they will all hang separately, it motivates them to hang together: it is the phenomenon of the superordinate goal.

2.  Porteous implicitly assumes that the white man's economic future lies in continuing the current reductionist paradigm economy which rests on conversion of natural into human capital.  We are running out of natural capital, and ecosystems are unraveling because of over-exploitation.  Transparently, we cannot continue business-as-usual and if we do attempt to avoid changing our ways, we will hit the iceberg of natural limits and the U.S.S. United States will sink, fulfilling Porteous's scenario.  However, if you look carefully at the Bali United Nations Climate Conference agreement, you discover two things.  First, there is an agreement to a timetable in which the hard climate change abatement questions will be addressed and the parties, including the US, will agree on the actions to be taken by all nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the amounts required - on which there is increasing consensus thanks to the 2007 IPCC reports and verification of these by various industrialized nations' Academies of Science.  Second, the Bali agreement immediately launches and funds technology transfer initiatives to developing nations so that they can skip the fossil-fueled stage of economic development and go directly to an ecozoic national energy economy.  The Bush administration will be out of office by the time the specific protocols for greenhouse gas abatement benchmarks and timetables are negotiated and adopted by the global climate conferees and whatever US administration replaces it - Democratic, Republican, independent or confused - will be far more oriented to doing what is necessary to abate global warming.  The Bush administration's reactionary posture on global warming is not based on conservative political philosophy, it is based on stupidity.  Some of the most economically conservative entities around have now published studies showing a 20:1 benefit-to-cost ratio from investing in global warming abatement starting immediately versus bearing the economic costs of failing to abate global climate change later.

3.  In common with my own apocalyptic thinking when I was a young man in the 1960's projecting the trend lines of my time, Porteous assumes that the industrialized economy is fragile and if it hits a bump in the road it will fly off the road, turn over on its top, and burn.  Having carefully observed what actually happens to stressed modern urban economies when disrupted by civil war or economic collapse, I now understand that modern industrialized economies are incredibly resilient.  A French mathematics called "catastrophe theory" describes what happens when a system cannot maintain stability because some of the nodes or connections fail to function: it reorganizes itself into a new system which can attain stability.  It is highly probable that we in the US particularly, because of our vast trade deficit and federal budget deficits, will suffer a series of economic dislocations and supply system interruptions because we have failed to build the renewable energy system replacement for the fossil-fueled national energy grid soon enough, making our economic system subject to destabilization due to shortages or price spikes in fossil fuel energy supplies.  However, the likely outcome after this time of instability is an ecozoic culture which is more physically comfortable and culturally richer than what we have now, not a scenario where a tattered remnant of Caucasian mankind is wandering stunned and impoverished through a post-apocalyptic wasteland.  Mind you, we can screw up and end up in that wasteland, but the human race has shown a remarkable ability through its history to suck it up and unite behind a superordinate goal of "making other arrangements" when a majority of the information leader elite among the polity realizes that they are going to end up dead, or stunned and impoverished, if they don't hang together and do what needs to be done to change direction towards a preferable future.

Political social psychology studies consistently show that you do not need to enlighten nine out of ten adult citizens of a culture in order to have a massive change of political direction take place in a society.  The "information leaders," who constitute at most ten percent of any polity, are functionally in charge of any community of people.  If a majority of them come to a consensual view of what the issues are and what needs to be done about them, that view radiates out through the whole polity and becomes the conventional wisdom of it.  Political suicide is committed by a national leader whose views and policies are contrary to those of a majority of the information leaders in the electorate.  Once the information leaders of the U.S. in the 1940's changed their minds from the international isolationism of the 1920's and 30's to interventionism into World War II to oppose fascism, thus opposing eventual invasion by Axis forces after they had conquered Europe and Asia, Congress and the President could impose vast tax increases, ration virtually everything, and stop production of private automobiles while enjoying high public approval ratings.  "We did it before and we can do it again!"  That World War II motto is still current in my book.  -Lance Christie

*THE COMING END OF DEMOCRACY?*
    The world is about the experience dramatic political, environmental and economic changes, which will end with a different world order than what we are familiar with today. It will bring an end to western-style democracy.
    Democracy as we know it is ill equipped to bring about the economic reforms to rescue mankind from destruction of the environment or to enforce the lifestyle changes necessary for the planets survival. Yet as the planet heads down the road towards destruction, it appears our leaders are unable to agree how to save the environment. For most to bring about the economic changes to save the planet would be political suicide with a democratic government.
    The failure of the recent Bali talk-feast to come to any specific targets in cutting greenhouse gas emissions highlights the problem when nations put their own domestic political interests before those of the global community is just another example of the failure of governments to reach agreement.
    The necessary changes can only come be made under an autocratic government that has global authority to implement the reforms needed to be made to save mankind from destroying the ability of the planet to sustain life. However these changes will require the enforcement of limitations on individual freedom and the way economies are managed.
    This new global government will considerable curtail individual freedom to travel, how we produce and consume goods and services in the way the western world does today, and the way we manage our economies. The curtailing of individual freedoms can only be achieved where political leaders are not restrained by democracy, where voters have the right not to support the tough decisions needed to be made.
    The world's nations will have to submit much of their national sovereignty to this new international leader, giving him the authority to bring about environmental and economic changes for managing the global economy. The changes will need to be enforced globally - there is no use having some nations not complying with environmental standards to allow them to be more competitive in the market place through breaking the rules. The coming global leader will have the authority to control all trade, to protect further abuses of the environment, which has contributed towards global warming.
    We are already seeing in Europe how nations can co-operate to enforce common environmental standards and laws. The EU nations have now reached agreement on selecting a single President to provide leadership for Europe. This same government model could be extended outside Europe.
    The coming economic collapse of the English speaking world will create a political and economic vacuum that will be filled by other nations. The EU will replace the Anglo-Saxon nations as the main global power. The collapse of the Anglo-Saxon nations will also free up the availability of some of the planet's natural resources, so long squandered by the English speaking world.
    Meanwhile the Anglo-Saxon nation's debt-ridden economies are unraveling, as their creditor nations become reluctant to advance further funds for their consummation of natural resources that most of the rest of humanity is denied. The collapse of the English-speaking economies will allow these resources to be used by other nations to enable them to increase the wealth of their people.
    Recent attempts by the USA to prop up its failing economy by printing money and other economic stimulus will only lead to further debasement of its currency and inflation. The ill-conceived invasion of Iraq and the inability to achieve victory in Afghanistan, have further weaken the economies of America and Britain, contributing towards their demise.
    The most significant factor in the shift of global power will be replacing the $US with the Euro as the world's reserve currency. The Eurozone will become the centre of gravity for international commence, extending its influence over world trade and commence. The collapse of the US dollar will also severely affect other currencies, especially in Asia, who will turn to the Eurozone for support. The Euro will become accepted as the only global currency, giving the EU universal political and economic power.
    Those nations that make up the Eurozone will come under the leadership of a single President, as has recently been agreed upon by the majority of the member states of the EU. This leader will have the authority to dictate how global commerce will be conducted - in order to protect the global environment. This coming leader is referred to as the Beast in the Book of Revelation in the Bible, and often prophesied by Christian groups teaching end-time prophecies. Its leader will have the support of the Catholic Church, and will be looked upon as some-one who is able to save mankind from destruction, yet bringing about a period of prosperity for the world, with the exception of the Anglo-Saxon nations, which will sink into national bankruptcy and total poverty.
    It will not be possible to bring about the changes to save the planet through democratic governments. The economic reforms required to be made only with the end of democracy. These changes can only be achieved through an autocratic leader who has the authority to impose the necessary reforms for the planet's survival. Other nations around the world will accept the authority of this leader in order to have access to the Euro to conduct commence.
    This same leader will have the authority to subject the Anglo-Saxon nations to his control, subjecting them to rigid regulations on how they conduct commerce. The people of these nations will have to accept his authority, otherwise be denied the right to earn a living or trade.
Their economies will be in total collapse. It will be time of persecution and great hardship for the English speaking people, requiring them to accept the authority of this new EU leader.
    What we are now seeing unfold is the first stages of the collapse of the Anglo-Saxon nations that have dominated the world for the last 200 years - these nation's economies will collapse and their people will sink into abject poverty and slavery. It will be a time of unprecedented hardship for the people of the USA, Canada, UK, New Zealand and Australia. It will result in many dying from famine and disease - many will be taken into slavery. It will be a time of great tribulation.
Bruce Porteous
bruceport@xtra.co.nz <>
12 January, 2008

Bruce Porteous of New Zealand articulates an apocalyptic scenario here containing themes which are on the minds of many.  However, his case contains a number of flawed premises.  I would like to address the most egregious here:

1.  Porteous assumes that democratic forms of government are incompetent to manage the massive economic and social change required to shift from the current industrial growth culture based on the reductionist paradigm to what Thomas Berry refers to as the "ecozoic" paradigm, which is based on sustainable energy and food production practices and recycling of materials.  Karl Marx predicted the fall of western capitalism and democracy in Das Kapital because he saw the US and other western governments increasingly suffering from regulatory capture by the robber barons of the age, did not believe that the US or other elected governments could alter the economic system which was concentrating more and more of the national wealth into the hands of the capitalistic elite.  He did not believe that Republican President Theodore Roosevelt and his "trust busters" could come into power and redistribute wealth; he did not believe that Democratic President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal could do it again in response to the Great Depression - but that is what happened.  In the world currently, I watch with great interest industry after industry (including all major US automakers, several major oil and electric utility corporations) joining the Global Climate Partnership with environmental groups and lobbying Congress for a carbon tax, cap-and-trade emissions reduction system.  I watch with interest the likelihood that one of Congress's most vigorous advocates of campaign finance reform and opponents of pork-barrel spending, John McCain, seems to be on track to be the Republican presidential nominee.  If people realize that they will all hang separately, it motivates them to hang together: it is the phenomenon of the superordinate goal.

2.  Porteous implicitly assumes that the white man's economic future lies in continuing the current reductionist paradigm economy which rests on conversion of natural into human capital.  We are running out of natural capital, and ecosystems are unraveling because of over-exploitation.  Transparently, we cannot continue business-as-usual and if we do attempt to avoid changing our ways, we will hit the iceberg of natural limits and the U.S.S. United States will sink, fulfilling Porteous's scenario.  However, if you look carefully at the Bali United Nations Climate Conference agreement, you discover two things.  First, there is an agreement to a timetable in which the hard climate change abatement questions will be addressed and the parties, including the US, will agree on the actions to be taken by all nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the amounts required - on which there is increasing consensus thanks to the 2007 IPCC reports and verification of these by various industrialized nations' Academies of Science.  Second, the Bali agreement immediately launches and funds technology transfer initiatives to developing nations so that they can skip the fossil-fueled stage of economic development and go directly to an ecozoic national energy economy.  The Bush administration will be out of office by the time the specific protocols for greenhouse gas abatement benchmarks and timetables are negotiated and adopted by the global climate conferees and whatever US administration replaces it - Democratic, Republican, independent or confused - will be far more oriented to doing what is necessary to abate global warming.  The Bush administration's reactionary posture on global warming is not based on conservative political philosophy, it is based on stupidity.  Some of the most economically conservative entities around have now published studies showing a 20:1 benefit-to-cost ratio from investing in global warming abatement starting immediately versus bearing the economic costs of failing to abate global climate change later.

3.  In common with my own apocalyptic thinking when I was a young man in the 1960's projecting the trend lines of my time, Porteous assumes that the industrialized economy is fragile and if it hits a bump in the road it will fly off the road, turn over on its top, and burn.  Having carefully observed what actually happens to stressed modern urban economies when disrupted by civil war or economic collapse, I now understand that modern industrialized economies are incredibly resilient.  A French mathematics called "catastrophe theory" describes what happens when a system cannot maintain stability because some of the nodes or connections fail to function: it reorganizes itself into a new system which can attain stability.  It is highly probable that we in the US particularly, because of our vast trade deficit and federal budget deficits, will suffer a series of economic dislocations and supply system interruptions because we have failed to build the renewable energy system replacement for the fossil-fueled national energy grid soon enough, making our economic system subject to destabilization due to shortages or price spikes in fossil fuel energy supplies.  However, the likely outcome after this time of instability is an ecozoic culture which is more physically comfortable and culturally richer than what we have now, not a scenario where a tattered remnant of Caucasian mankind is wandering stunned and impoverished through a post-apocalyptic wasteland.  Mind you, we can screw up and end up in that wasteland, but the human race has shown a remarkable ability through its history to suck it up and unite behind a superordinate goal of "making other arrangements" when a majority of the information leader elite among the polity realizes that they are going to end up dead, or stunned and impoverished, if they don't hang together and do what needs to be done to change direction towards a preferable future.

Political social psychology studies consistently show that you do not need to enlighten nine out of ten adult citizens of a culture in order to have a massive change of political direction take place in a society.  The "information leaders," who constitute at most ten percent of any polity, are functionally in charge of any community of people.  If a majority of them come to a consensual view of what the issues are and what needs to be done about them, that view radiates out through the whole polity and becomes the conventional wisdom of it.  Political suicide is committed by a national leader whose views and policies are contrary to those of a majority of the information leaders in the electorate.  Once the information leaders of the U.S. in the 1940's changed their minds from the international isolationism of the 1920's and 30's to interventionism into World War II to oppose fascism, thus opposing eventual invasion by Axis forces after they had conquered Europe and Asia, Congress and the President could impose vast tax increases, ration virtually everything, and stop production of private automobiles while enjoying high public approval ratings.  "We did it before and we can do it again!"  That World War II motto is still current in my book.  -Lance Christie

*THE COMING END OF DEMOCRACY?*
    The world is about the experience dramatic political, environmental and economic changes, which will end with a different world order than what we are familiar with today. It will bring an end to western-style democracy.
    Democracy as we know it is ill equipped to bring about the economic reforms to rescue mankind from destruction of the environment or to enforce the lifestyle changes necessary for the planets survival. Yet as the planet heads down the road towards destruction, it appears our leaders are unable to agree how to save the environment. For most to bring about the economic changes to save the planet would be political suicide with a democratic government.
    The failure of the recent Bali talk-feast to come to any specific targets in cutting greenhouse gas emissions highlights the problem when nations put their own domestic political interests before those of the global community is just another example of the failure of governments to reach agreement.
    The necessary changes can only come be made under an autocratic government that has global authority to implement the reforms needed to be made to save mankind from destroying the ability of the planet to sustain life. However these changes will require the enforcement of limitations on individual freedom and the way economies are managed.
    This new global government will considerable curtail individual freedom to travel, how we produce and consume goods and services in the way the western world does today, and the way we manage our economies. The curtailing of individual freedoms can only be achieved where political leaders are not restrained by democracy, where voters have the right not to support the tough decisions needed to be made.
    The world's nations will have to submit much of their national sovereignty to this new international leader, giving him the authority to bring about environmental and economic changes for managing the global economy. The changes will need to be enforced globally - there is no use having some nations not complying with environmental standards to allow them to be more competitive in the market place through breaking the rules. The coming global leader will have the authority to control all trade, to protect further abuses of the environment, which has contributed towards global warming.
    We are already seeing in Europe how nations can co-operate to enforce common environmental standards and laws. The EU nations have now reached agreement on selecting a single President to provide leadership for Europe. This same government model could be extended outside Europe.
    The coming economic collapse of the English speaking world will create a political and economic vacuum that will be filled by other nations. The EU will replace the Anglo-Saxon nations as the main global power. The collapse of the Anglo-Saxon nations will also free up the availability of some of the planet's natural resources, so long squandered by the English speaking world.
    Meanwhile the Anglo-Saxon nation's debt-ridden economies are unraveling, as their creditor nations become reluctant to advance further funds for their consummation of natural resources that most of the rest of humanity is denied. The collapse of the English-speaking economies will allow these resources to be used by other nations to enable them to increase the wealth of their people.
    Recent attempts by the USA to prop up its failing economy by printing money and other economic stimulus will only lead to further debasement of its currency and inflation. The ill-conceived invasion of Iraq and the inability to achieve victory in Afghanistan, have further weaken the economies of America and Britain, contributing towards their demise.
    The most significant factor in the shift of global power will be replacing the $US with the Euro as the world's reserve currency. The Eurozone will become the centre of gravity for international commence, extending its influence over world trade and commence. The collapse of the US dollar will also severely affect other currencies, especially in Asia, who will turn to the Eurozone for support. The Euro will become accepted as the only global currency, giving the EU universal political and economic power.
    Those nations that make up the Eurozone will come under the leadership of a single President, as has recently been agreed upon by the majority of the member states of the EU. This leader will have the authority to dictate how global commerce will be conducted - in order to protect the global environment. This coming leader is referred to as the Beast in the Book of Revelation in the Bible, and often prophesied by Christian groups teaching end-time prophecies. Its leader will have the support of the Catholic Church, and will be looked upon as some-one who is able to save mankind from destruction, yet bringing about a period of prosperity for the world, with the exception of the Anglo-Saxon nations, which will sink into national bankruptcy and total poverty.
    It will not be possible to bring about the changes to save the planet through democratic governments. The economic reforms required to be made only with the end of democracy. These changes can only be achieved through an autocratic leader who has the authority to impose the necessary reforms for the planet's survival. Other nations around the world will accept the authority of this leader in order to have access to the Euro to conduct commence.
    This same leader will have the authority to subject the Anglo-Saxon nations to his control, subjecting them to rigid regulations on how they conduct commerce. The people of these nations will have to accept his authority, otherwise be denied the right to earn a living or trade.
Their economies will be in total collapse. It will be time of persecution and great hardship for the English speaking people, requiring them to accept the authority of this new EU leader.
    What we are now seeing unfold is the first stages of the collapse of the Anglo-Saxon nations that have dominated the world for the last 200 years - these nation's economies will collapse and their people will sink into abject poverty and slavery. It will be a time of unprecedented hardship for the people of the USA, Canada, UK, New Zealand and Australia. It will result in many dying from famine and disease - many will be taken into slavery. It will be a time of great tribulation.
Bruce Porteous
bruceport@xtra.co.nz <>
12 January, 2008